Tropical Trouble Looming Larger for Texas This Week? What to Know (2024)

A few weeks back residents of the Upper Texas Coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda, High Island, and Galveston were breathing a sigh of relief. The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season had arrived and there wasn't a lot happening to be concerned about.

Submitted Photo/Christine Dinky Dawg

Fast forward three weeks to now, and it's pretty easy to see the tropics have awakened with a vengeance. Residents of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and the Carolinas are still hurting from Hurricane Helene's landfall last week. By the way, if you'd like to help those folks out, follow this link.

What's Next After Hurricane Helene, ShouldTexas Be Concerned?

The short answers to those questions are as follows. What's next? Probably a lot, just look at the graphic below from the National Hurricane Center.And should Texas be concerned? We'll have to wait and see.

What you see on the map is a tropical storm, two tropical depressions, and two potential trouble spots in the tropics. Tropical Storm Isaac will soon dissipate over the colder waters of the North Atlantic. Joyce is a tropical depression now and will soon fade away too. Tropical Depression Twelve is a different story though. It's forecast to become a Major Hurricane by Thursday.

The good news about TD 12 or soon-to-be Tropical Storm Kirk is that it appears to be a "fish storm". That's a tropical cyclone that stays over the open water and doesn't affect land. Let's certainly hope that's the case. There is also another tropical wave you see noted on the NHC graphic, it's the yellow X. That system is also expected to strengthen and move away from the African continent this week.

Tropical System in the Gulf of Mexico To Start October?

Based on the information being relayed by the National Hurricane Center it does appear as though Texas' hurricane anxiety can once again bubble up to the forefront as we move into the tenth month of the year.

The graphic below is courtesy of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles. You can see the area of concern is focused on the western Caribbean. It's in a very similar location as the place where Hurricane Helene got started.

weather.gov/lch

The forecast from the NHC suggests the low-pressure area will move from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico by later this week. The probability of the system developing into a tropical cyclone is listed at 50% over the next seven days.

What Do The Spaghetti Models Say About Tropical Formation in the Gulf?

As of this morning the "spaghetti models" aren't saying anything about the area of disturbed weather. The tropical forecast models don't usually "kick in" until there is an actual storm system to track. However, other forecast models that offer model solutions for the Gulf of Mexico suggest that we keep a close eye on the Gulf this week.

The 00z run of the GFS Model does show a couple of things happening in the Gulf of Mexico. As you can see in the posting from "X" formerly Twitter, the model solution suggests another worst-case scenario for the west coast of Florida. Here is where we remind you that this is a model solution and not an official forecast.

The GFS Model run shows a lot of action in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days. Fortunately for interests in Texas, there doesn't appear to be anything "life-threatening" heading in our direction. But, that can change a lot over time.

What Should CoastalTexas Prepare for This Week?

Currently, the heat would be the most important aspect of our forecast for the first few days of October. By Thursday there will be a chance of showers entering the forecast, perhaps spurred by some of the Gulf moisture we've already referenced.

weather.gov/lch

But as of now, it does look as if the week acrossthe Upper Texas Coastwill be warm and humid with a threat of showers or thunderstorms from Thursday through at least Saturday.

Getty Images

And no, since we knew you'd ask, there doesn't appear to be a fall weather cold front arriving anytime soon as high temperatures will be close to 90 degrees each day between now and the middle of October.

Top 10 States with the Highest IQ's

VisualCapitalist has compiled data from a report in the National Library of Medicine to determine what states in the United States have the highest IQs. Below are the top 10 states and their average IQ scores.

Gallery Credit: Jessica On The Radio

Tropical Trouble Looming Larger for Texas This Week? What to Know (2024)
Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: Kieth Sipes

Last Updated:

Views: 5344

Rating: 4.7 / 5 (67 voted)

Reviews: 82% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Kieth Sipes

Birthday: 2001-04-14

Address: Suite 492 62479 Champlin Loop, South Catrice, MS 57271

Phone: +9663362133320

Job: District Sales Analyst

Hobby: Digital arts, Dance, Ghost hunting, Worldbuilding, Kayaking, Table tennis, 3D printing

Introduction: My name is Kieth Sipes, I am a zany, rich, courageous, powerful, faithful, jolly, excited person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.